Hayes' Say
By Greg Hayes - 1 March 2010
So the final field has been decided for the Watpac Inter Dominion final at Tabcorp Park Menangle this coming Sunday. To be fair there is probably only one "big name" missing. Karloo Mick failed to make the final after a poor performance in the first round of heats and while he raced better on Saturday night at Newcastle, he isn't the same horse at the moment that saw him place in the Miracle Mile in November last year.
I am on a hiding to nothing because I am writing this before the barrier draw but here is the order I think the horses will finish in this Sunday in the $1 million dollar final.
1 Monkey King Seems to be getting into ridiculous odds and even with a perfect draw it is hard to see him starting any shorter than his current quote of $2.10 with TAB Fixed Odds. Has gone through the series undefeated and I think one of the biggest factors in his favour is the timing of trainer Brendon Hill. After the horse won the Miracle Mile and was then unlucky in the Victoria Cup, Hill made the decision to concentrate on just one race, the Inter Dominion. There were no thoughts about competing in the Hunter Cup and he has fresh legs as a result. Ricky May says he is better now than he was in November and that is a very ominous sign.
2 Blacks A Fake I think we have to take the champ's form on face value and ignore what he did at Menangle last November when he was run off his feet in the Miracle Mile. Ripped home a very solid half outside the leader at Newcastle but I am still concerned about his ability to go with some of the real speedsters in the field in the last furlong of the race. If he is forced to death seat this week there will be a good horse sitting on his back doing a lot less work and that makes him vulnerable. If he managed to lead he has a winning chance.
3 Washakie Is in great form at the moment and it is hard to deny the Queenslander a winning hope. Has drawn poorly on both occasions and has done enough to score good points in the heats. Most of his good runs have been on smaller tracks but he did perform well at Menangle on Miracle Mile day. Impossible to say he can't win.
4 Atomic Ark I am tipping him to run another super race this Sunday. He has surprised me during the heats and I really liked the way he hit the line behind Washakie on Saturday night. Obviously his chances hinge on a good barrier draw but should he settle close to them on the pegs there is every chance he can squeeze into the first four.
5 Changeover I don't think he is as hopeless as the current market suggests. He was driven upside down on Saturday night in an endeavour to qualify for the final. There will be enough speed on during the race on Sunday to ensure that he won't pull, but the barrier will be crucial. Ideally he will slot straight into a good spot without having to do any work. All of his best efforts have been when driven quietly and if he gets the opportunity to be held up late I think he can finish off extremely well.
6 Bondy It is very hard to knock a horse that has won his last four starts including a Hunter Cup and two Inter Dominion heats. I made the point on In the Gig that he has had to only break 30 seconds for two quarters during his heat wins and that proves that he has done little more than sit up and sprint so far. There looks to be stronger leaders in this field and if he can't lead there are horses with a better sprint than him that will be too close to hold off late. David Butt has done really well with him but I think racing a field bursting with quality from the mobile might sort him out this weekend.
7 Smoken Up - I didn't think his run on Saturday night at Newcastle was all that bad. Yes Lance Justice got caught asleep by John McCarthy and the horse didn't look at home on the track but he did his typical thing and fought all the way to the line making up two lengths late. He did what he had to do at Harold Park and there is no doubt that his favourite racing circuit in the country is Menangle. However, I am still concerned about all the work he has done during the season and if he draws well he is going to have to do a lot of bullocking work that will leave him vulnerable late.
8 Baileys Dream Ricky May said on Sydney radio last week that the horse had good gatespeed and he would be using it at Newcastle in the final round of heats. Once again it highlights the difference between Australian and New Zealand perceived early speed when he fell out of the gate and showed very little. There is no doubt that he will be better suited at Menangle but he looked a bit flat for mine after his brilliant run at Harold Park on night one. He looks to be only a minor role player on the weekend.
9 Mr Feelgood Anthony Butt knew what he had to do in the final heat on Saturday night and drove accordingly. I think it's fair to say that he is racing better now than he was three months ago and his run in the Hunter Cup wasn't too bad considering he galloped but he again went roughly at his last start and that isn't ideal leading into Sunday. He was written off last year and won but this year would be an even bigger turn around.
10 Our Awesome Armbro Has made his way through to the final on the back of two solid performances and two great barrier draws. The law of averages suggest he is due for a bad draw and if he is driven in the same manner as he was in the New Zealand Free For All he only becomes a nuisance. He lacks the class of his stablemate Changeover.
So I think the favourites will dominate on Sunday and I hope you will be there or tuning into Sky to watch the final unfold. I can't wait. Catch you next week.
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