Hayes' Say
By Greg Hayes - 23 November 2009
The Miracle Mile field was finalised on Friday night after the running of the Cordina Sprint and the final two spots went to Karloo Mick and Lonestar Legend. Karloo Mick was always going to get into the field. If he had been beaten in the final qualifying event, I think the directors would have still put the New Zealand Cup runner into the mile. However once the Barry Lew trained gelding won, the directors were left with a decision between Lonestar Legend and Cant Bluff Me.
I had my say on the issue during In The Gig on Sunday night and if you missed it, I believe the directors went the wrong way. It's not highly controversial and we have seen stranger decisions but Cant Bluff Me's run on Friday night should have seen him into the field. He drew barrier one, which isn't ideal because of his lack of early speed. He sat three fence but was forced off the inside in the concluding stages and was shunted four and five wide when he made his run. Cant Bluff Me was closing on Karloo Mick late and the time was good. Greg Radley suggested that the Newcastle Mile field was the worst that he had seen in the history of the race. Lonestar Legend used his early speed to advantage and led before being run down by the up and comer Saucy Legend. The Harold Park directors should be encouraging trainers to bring their horses to Harold Park in the lead up to the Miracle Mile but by inviting the second horse from the Newcastle Mile they have detracted from their own event. To be honest, the decision was very surprising.
The barrier draw has made the race more intriguing. Two of the big guns have drawn the outside and may force some tactical changes.
1. Lonestar Legend Is lucky to be in the race and while many assume that the former American will look to hold the lead, I think Blake Fitzpatrick might look for some cover. When trained in America the horse was driven patiently on bigger tracks and if held up on Sunday he has a slim place chance.
2. Kiwi Ingenuity Has the fastest New Zealand mile ever when she went 1:52.1 in the Harness Jewels. Sunday is going to be a big acid test for her which should indicate whether she will be able to compete with the big boys on the Grand Circuit. I wouldn't be surprised to see her look for some cover early and she could end up getting the run of the race. Rough chance.
3. Smoken Up The fastest horse in Australasia has drawn perfectly. Lance Justice will drive the horse aggressively as usual and if he finds the top and gets a relatively easy quarter he is going to take a power of beating. Is the only horse in the race that has competed at Menangle and looks certain to turn for home first. Can he hold off the swoopers? I think he can.
4. Monkey King The New Zealand Cup and FFA winner will drop out early. If the race was at Harold Park he would be a 25/1 chance but with the race at Menangle he is entitled to be one of the favourites. Ricky May is going to need to find the back of the horse that leads the three wide line and if he can, Monkey King is a major threat.
5. Karloo Mick A year ago I could not have believed that Karloo Mick would be invited to compete in a Miracle Mile but the decision to use Greg Bennett in the sulky has been a very smart one indeed. Held off some of New Zealand's fastest in a sprint finish at Ashburton and while it is tough to see him winning, he is a place chance.
6. Melpark Major Was simply brilliant at Tabcorp Park in the Legends Mile last start and looked to have a bit up his sleeve when he raced away for a comfortable win. Should be well suited on the track, might have to do some of the tough stuff early but he is a winning chance.
7. Auckland Reactor I said on Sky Racing recently that against the very best horses, Auckland Reactor has to be driven like he is a vulture. Wait until the carcass has nearly been eaten before he gets involved and after the draw he looks certain to be driven that way. If driven cold he will be fighting for the same spot as Monkey King in the three wide line but he will have the service of Tony Herlihy and he is the best in the business.
8. Blacks A Fake Got out to ridiculous odds after the draw and might have to be used up early but still can win from the barrier. Unsure whether he has the sheer speed to go with some of the sprinters in this race and needs to be a couple of lengths in front of them as they turn for home. $11 was over the odds and $8 still looks to be a good bet.
For the record, I am tipping Smoken Up. The key to the race will be the early pressure and whether Lance can back it off enough between the 800 and the 600. If he can, I think he will be too slick up the straight. The hardest to beat is Auckland Reactor. I think he will be better suited off the pace and will be rocketing home. For third, Melpark Major. If Amy Tubbs goes forward at the start, at worst she looks set to be in the first four when the field settles down. Melpark Major has a brilliant sprint and he was unlucky last year.
Good luck to all of the callers on Sunday. Greg Radley will call his first Miracle Mile and it will be great to hear Ray Hadley, David Morrow and Hilton Donaldson call the trots again. Fred Hastings will call three races on the card too. Catch you next week.
|